Jim,
Good question!
CAUTION! There's a math test!
It is a matter of record that GOLD was produced.
It has been "estimated" that the recovery was 50 percent. Was it 40? Was it 10? 35?
So, if they took 50 percent and left 50 percent, They left GOLD in the tailings.
My mining experience at has revealed the same as the prior operator that the TENOR of the GOLD is .0 ounces per cubic yard.
Probability of error;
Probability of error depends on the number of samples, n.
Probability and Certainty as a percent can be calculated with enough data.
I took thousands of samples (n), the "mean" and Standard Deviation can be calculated. Suffice it to say the mean is .0 ounces per cubic yard. The deviation above and below is naturally wide because of the variability in the GOLD that was being mined at the time.
Did I sample ALL of the tailing piles; NO
I did not sample all of the tailing piles. so, It was an (almost) random sample.
Random chance;
Maybe I randomly sampled ONLY tailings that had GOLD!
Maybe the estimate of recovery was WAY off!
My recovery is based on MY recovery process. Maybe, I lost GOLD! I estimate my recovery using almost the same method I use for recovery. Does a better test need to be used?
Disclaimer: I am not buying or Selling.
Oh, yes, there's more!
- Geowizard